Battery energy storage systems (BESS) will have a CAGR of 30 percent, and the GWh required to power these applications in 2030 will be comparable to the GWh needed for all applications today. China could account for 45 percent of total Li-ion demand in 2025 and 40 percent in 2030—most battery-chain segments are already mature in that country.
But a 2022 analysis by the McKinsey Battery Insights team projects that the entire lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery chain, from mining through recycling, could grow by over 30 percent annually from 2022 to 2030, when it would reach a value of more than $400 billion and a market size of 4.7 TWh. 1
On the other hand, it is possible to reduce the production cost of batteries by giving some tax incentives to battery manufacturers or manufacturers of core components of the battery industry based on overall considerations of their production quality, sales performance, innovation ability, customer satisfaction, and other aspects.
BNEF forecasts the average battery price will climb to $135 per kilowatt-hour in 2022, some 2% higher than a year earlier. If inflationary pressures persist, this could delay the point at which EVs reach the $100-per-kilowatt-hour threshold by two years, to 2026.
Value chain depth and concentration of the battery industry vary by country (Exhibit 16). While China has many mature segments, cell suppliers are increasingly announcing capacity expansion in Europe, the United States, and other major markets, to be closer to car manufacturers.
Automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 GWh in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, primarily as a result of growth in electric passenger car sales, with new registrations increasing by 55% in 2022 relative to 2021.