Battery demand for lithium stood at around 140 kt in 2023, 85% of total lithium demand and up more than 30% compared to 2022; for cobalt, demand for batteries was up 15% at 150 kt, 70% of the total. To a lesser extent, battery demand growth contributes to increasing total demand for nickel, accounting for over 10% of total nickel demand.
Automotive and battery manufacturers face a difficult period of uncertainty in the battery supply chain, and many are turning to building their own battery gigafactories or forming joint ventures to address squeezed supply.
In fact, the battery supply chain risks facing a situation similar to the current semiconductor chip shortage, where demand growth has outstripped capital investment in new supply. Furthermore, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors will play a more significant role—raising another set of issues that companies need to address.
Until now, the priority has been on improving energy density — for longer driving range — by changing the composition of battery materials. The shape of the battery cells has been less of a focus. Currently, most electric car batteries are designed and moulded in the shape and form that ensures the most efficient use of space.
In 2023, the supply of cobalt and nickel exceeded demand by 6.5% and 8%, and supply of lithium by over 10%, thereby bringing down critical mineral prices and battery costs. While low critical mineral prices help bring battery costs down, they also imply lower cash flows and narrower margins for mining companies.
As manufacturing capacity expands in the major electric car markets, we expect battery production to remain close to EV demand centres through to 2030, based on the announced pipeline of battery manufacturing capacity expansion as of early 2024.