The experts agree that cost reductions and performance improvements will continue, and that wind and solar PV will become the most cost-eficient power sources by 2030. Large-scale transformation and deployment will, however, require rethinking energy systems and policy interventions.
Globally, solar PV alone accounted for three-quarters of renewable capacity additions worldwide. Prior to the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, the International Energy Agency (IEA) urged governments to support five pillars for action by 2030, among them the goal of tripling global renewable power capacity.
As modeled, wind and solar energy provide 60%–80% of generation in the least-cost electricity mix in 2035, and the overall generation capacity grows to roughly three times the 2020 level by 2035—including a combined 2 terawatts of wind and solar.
Wind and solar PV would be prominent generation sources by 2050. Wind power supply would need to increase from 6% in 2018 to 35% of total electricity needs by 2050. Solar PV generation share would need to increase from 2% in 2018 to 25% by 2050. Wind capacities would need to be significantly scaled-up in coming decades.
Offshore wind installed capacity is expected to increase ten-fold by 203017 and will become a more important part of the electricity landscape than it is today, first in Europe but later elsewhere. Costs are set to reduce by 40%-50% by 203018 driven by:
The share of solar PV and wind in global electricity generation is forecast to double to 25% in 2028 in our main case. This rapid expansion in the next five years will have implications for power systems worldwide.