Installed capacity is doubling every three years. According to the International Solar Energy Society, solar power is on track to generate more electricity than all the world’s nuclear power plants in 2026, than its wind turbines in 2027, than its dams in 2028, its gas-fired power plants in 2030 and its coal-fired ones in 2032.
In 2009, when installed solar capacity worldwide was 23 gw, the energy experts at the iea predicted that in the 20 years to 2030 it would increase to 244 gw. It hit that milestone in 2016, when only six of the 20 years had passed.
Panels now occupy an area around half that of Wales, and this year they will provide the world with about 6% of its electricity—which is almost three times as much electrical energy as America consumed back in 1954. Yet this historic growth is only the second-most-remarkable thing about the rise of solar power.
The cost of electricity from solar plants has experienced a remarkable reduction over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022. Batteries, which are essential for balancing solar energy supply throughout the day and night, have also undergone a similar price revolution, between 2008 and 2022.
Under the scenario described in the roadmaps, most of the growth of solar electricity comes from PV until 2030. However, the picture changes afterwards. When reaching shares between 5% and 15% of annual electricity generation, PV starts to lose value in wholesale markets.
In a future where solar energy dominates, there will also be a substantial demand for various critical metals and minerals. In fact, the International Energy Agency that, by 2040, renewable technologies will account for approximately 40% of the total demand for copper, between 60% and 70% for nickel and cobalt, and nearly 90% for lithium.