New solar PV manufacturing facilities along the supply chain could attract USD 120 billion investment by 2030. Annual investment levels need to double throughout the supply chain. Critical sectors such as polysilicon, ingots and wafers would attract the majority of investment to support growing demand.
Global solar PV manufacturing capacity has increasingly moved from Europe, Japan and the United States to China over the last decade. China has invested over USD 50 billion in new PV supply capacity – ten times more than Europe − and created more than 300 000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain since 2011.
When companies contemplate investing in solar PV, the amount of capital required is a crucial factor to consider. Certain segments of the supply chain, particularly the raw material, and the ingots and wafers, require significant investment, which can raise project risks and decrease their appeal to lenders.
A global solar manufacturing industry worth $90 billion has emerged, with China dominant. However, the market is marked by massive overcapacity, with global solar manufacturing capacity for modules in 2023 at 1,140 gigawatts (IEA, 2023b, 2024) compared to annual deployment of 345 GW (Ember, 2024).
Supply chain of PV solar panels is at risks due to trade barriers and shortage of raw material. China controls the supply of materials, manufacturing, installations, and recycling capacity. Recycling high-value materials from end-of-life PV panels is not a practical solution.
China is expected to be the primary source of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025, with its share of global polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production expected to reach almost 95 % based on manufacturing capacity under construction (IEA, 2022a).