Cost-savings in lithium-ion battery production are crucial for promoting widespread adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles and achieving cost-parity with internal combustion engines. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of projected production costs for lithium-ion batteries by 2030, focusing on essential metals.
In 2022, the estimated average battery price stood at about USD 150 per kWh, with the cost of pack manufacturing accounting for about 20% of total battery cost, compared to more than 30% a decade earlier. Pack production costs have continued to decrease over time, down 5% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
The paper gives a detailed overview of the cost types in both batteries in a cost breakdown. Their methodology includes learning curves. These learning curves are abstracted from current and estimated future global electric car numbers. For the year 2020, the publication assumes a battery sales price of between 130 and 200 USD per kWh .
Turmoil in battery metal markets led the cost of Li-ion battery packs to increase for the first time in 2022, with prices rising to 7% higher than in 2021. However, the price of all key battery metals dropped during 2023, with cobalt, graphite and manganese prices falling to lower than their 2015-2020 average by the end of 2023.
The article identifies main cost types for battery production as land acquisition, construction, equipment, liability, material, utilities, logistics, and labor. The comparison is based on 18650-cells with a NMC cathode chemistry. The work identifies a gap inside the labor costs between the two countries.
Battery production cost can be measured by full, levelized, and marginal costs. Several studies analyze the full costs, but the components are not clearly defined. For example, capital costs and taxes are omitted by most authors.