China has already made major commitments to transitioning its energy systems towards renewables, especially power generation from solar, wind and hydro sources. However, there are many unknowns about the future of solar energy in China, including its cost, technical feasibility and grid compatibility in the coming decades.
Researchers from Harvard, Tsinghua University in Beijing, Nankai University in Tianjin and Renmin University of China in Beijing have found that solar energy could provide 43.2% of China’s electricity demands in 2060 at less than two-and-a-half U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour.
China added almost twice as much utility-scale solar and wind power capacity in 2023 than in any other year. By the first quarter of 2024, China’s total utility-scale solar and wind capacity reached 758 GW, though data from China Electricity Council put the total capacity, including distributed solar, at 1,120 GW.
The researchers first found that the physical potential of solar PV, which includes how many solar panels can be installed and how much solar energy they can generate, in China reached 99.2 petawatt-hours in 2020.
Solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro capacity is now at a level where it can meet and eventually outpace growth in energy demand in China, according to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for CREA. If the tempo of deployments is sustained China’s emissions will fall next year, and potentially “enter into a structural decline,” he said.
All told, 2023 saw unprecedented wind and solar growth in China. The unabated wave of construction guarantees that China will continue leading in wind and solar installation in the near future, far ahead of the rest of the world.