Against this backdrop, there is a need to develop a better understanding of future demand for battery metals, including an analysis of technology development trends which may influence the degree to which factors such as recycling, demand reduction and alternative technologies affect demand scenarios.
Battery demand for lithium stood at around 140 kt in 2023, 85% of total lithium demand and up more than 30% compared to 2022; for cobalt, demand for batteries was up 15% at 150 kt, 70% of the total. To a lesser extent, battery demand growth contributes to increasing total demand for nickel, accounting for over 10% of total nickel demand.
In both scenarios, EVs and battery storage account for about half of the mineral demand growth from clean energy technologies over the next two decades, spurred by surging demand for battery materials. Mineral demand from EVs and battery storage grows tenfold in the STEPS and over 30 times in the SDS over the period to 2040.
In 2023, IEA’s report showed that battery demand for lithium reached around 140 kt, accounting for 85% of total lithium demand, while cobalt demand for batteries rose by 15% to 150 kt, representing 70% of the total demand. Battery demand for nickel also surged to nearly 370 kt, up almost 30% from 2022.
Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published May 29, 2022 [24 pgs]. The battery metals bull market has peaked. Battery metals – cobalt, lithium and nickel – will power the green industrial revolution, facing a wave of demand comparable to that of copper and iron ore during China’s rapid growth in the 2000’s.
In 2022, about 60% of lithium, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel demand was for EV batteries. Just five years earlier, in 2017, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively.