According to our results, approximately 78.6 % and 99.9 % of China's technical solar PV potential are priced lower than the benchmark price of coal-fired energy in pessimistic and optimistic scenario.
Researchers from Harvard, Tsinghua University in Beijing, Nankai University in Tianjin and Renmin University of China in Beijing have found that solar energy could provide 43.2% of China’s electricity demands in 2060 at less than two-and-a-half U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour.
The researchers first found that the physical potential of solar PV, which includes how many solar panels can be installed and how much solar energy they can generate, in China reached 99.2 petawatt-hours in 2020.
The 216.9 gigawatts of solar power the country added shattered its previous record of 87.4 gigawatts from 2022. Not only does this achievement solidify China’s position as a renewable energy powerhouse but also eclipses the entire solar fleet of the United States, the world’s second-largest solar market, according to Bloomberg.
Province-level solar PV supply curves in China were constructed. PV technical potential was estimated around 39.6 PWh to 442 PWh. The uncertainty of PV technical potential was quantified. The cost of PV ranges from 0.12 CNY/kWh to 7.93 CNY/kWh. China's PV economic potential far exceeds its projected electricity demand.
It is great merit to alleviate the geographic imbalance in China's energy endowment. According to the prediction of IEA , Fig. 2 shows that by 2040, the installed capacity of solar photovoltaics is expected to exceed wind, accounting for 22% of China's total electricity capacities. It indicates the great potential of China's solar power market.