According to the IEA’s estimates, the currently projected deployment of solar would raise globally installed capacity from 1,550 GW in 2023 to 5,023 GW by 2030. Deploying the ‘spare’ solar capacity of 3,837 GW in addition to this would raise the global installed capacity in 2030 by over 75%, to a total of 8,855 GW.
National targets would deliver 7,241 GW by 2030, and projected deployment 9,513 GW, while the tripling target calls for 11,000 GW. Deploying all the ‘spare’ solar in addition would reach the target a year ahead of schedule and deliver 13,345 GW in 2030, exceeding the target by 21%.
China required from the first demonstration phase that each CSP project must include thermal energy storage, marking the first recognition globally of the value of the low cost and longevity of thermal energy storage. As a power station storing solar energy thermally, CSP operates like a gas plant to supply grid services like rolling reserves.
With the vast majority (80-85%) of solar manufacturing plants located in China, supporting deployment of ‘spare’ solar capacity in the developing world presents a significant opportunity for China to deliver national gains, in addition to helping deliver global goals on development and climate change.
Cook Islands, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Niue, Palau, Palestine, Tuvalu (7 states) Projections of solar panel manufacturing capacity and deployment 2024-2028 were sourced from the International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2023 report.
To activate the undeveloped pilot projects, the National Energy Administration subsequently offered a slightly lower tariff if any could connect to the grid by 2021, to encourage confident startups like Cosin and Shouhang that emerged as major Tower CSP developers in China, to grab some of these lost opportunities.