Global lithium production totalled 100,000 tons (90.7 million kg) last year, while worldwide reserves stand at about 22 million tons (20 billion kg), according to the US Geological Survey. Dividing lithium production by the amount needed per battery shows that enough lithium was mined last year to make just under 11.4 million EV batteries.
Dividing lithium production by the amount needed per battery shows that enough lithium was mined last year to make just under 11.4 million EV batteries. This is a level that annual electric vehicle purchases could hit soon, after first-quarter sales rose by 75% on the year to touch 2 million, according to IEA figures.
As volumes increased, battery costs plummeted and energy density — a key metric of a battery’s quality — rose steadily. Over the past 30 years, battery costs have fallen by a dramatic 99 percent; meanwhile, the density of top-tier cells has risen fivefold.
For thirty years, sales have been doubling every two to three years, enjoying a 33 percent average growth rate. In the past decade, as electric cars have taken off, it has been closer to 40 percent. Exhibit 1: Global battery sales by sector, GWh/y
It’s easy to imagine that decades from now, the chemistry of batteries will have changed so much that they will use two, three, or four times less than today. I’m more interested in the overall magnitude of these estimates – that they’re ten to twenty million tonnes (ish)– than the precise figures.
The following countries have significant lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity: Australia, Spain, Canada, Portugal, United States, Switzerland, Thailand, Finland, France, Belgium, Japan, Italy, Poland, World, Indonesia, Greece, Mexico, China, South Africa, Netherlands, Chile, and Korea. [Chart and data by the International Energy Agency].