Considering the available state-of-the-art bottom-up cost models, Wentker et al. presented a modifiable cost model to estimate cathode active material (CAM) costs for ten sorts of lithium-ion battery cell chemistries based on real-time prices of raw materials.
Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) are pivotal in the shift towards electric mobility, having seen an 85 % reduction in production costs over the past decade. However, achieving even more significant cost reductions is vital to making battery electric vehicles (BEVs) widespread and competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).
The average LiB cell cost for all battery types in their work stands approximately at 470 US$.kWh −1. A range of 305 to 460.9 US$.kWh −1 is reported for 2010 in other studies [75, 100, 101]. Moreover, the generic historical LiB cost trajectory is in good agreement with other works mentioned in Fig. 6, particularly, the Bloomberg report .
Battery raw materials like lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3), lithium hydroxide (LiOH), nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co) have experienced significant price fluctuations over the past five years. Figures 1 and 2 show the development of material spot prices between 2018 and 2023.
IEA analysis based on data from Bloomberg and Bloomberg New Energy Finance Lithium-Ion Price Survey (2023). “Battery pack price” refers to the volume-weighted average pack price of lithium-ion batteries over all sectors. Price of selected battery materials and lithium-ion batteries, 2015-2024 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency.
At present, the purchase prices for battery raw materials have probably already benefited from the lower spot market prices, even in longer-running but dynamic contracts. Our estimates give a price level of about 120 USD/kWh for the NMC811 and about 95 USD/kWh for the LFP cell.