These aspects are left for further research. This coal-fired power plant is expected to be the first ever built in Côte d’Ivoire. Note that the implicit price of carbon for the other scenarios is not worth studying because they show CO 2 emissions in 2050 below the Paris Agreement target.
In the case of a low-cost solar scenario, PV capacity is up to 24 GW and storage is nearly 15 GW between 2030 and 2050. In closing its economic gap with emerging markets, Côte d’Ivoire will face a substantial increase in electricity demand over the next three decades.
Côte d’Ivoire is the third largest electricity market in West Africa and has historically been a net exporter of electricity with 11.8% of its total electricity generation sold to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Ghana in 2019 (ANARE-CI, 2020). 2.1.2. Future cost assumptions Fig. 2 presents the long-term cost assumption for our analysis.
According to its National Determined Contribution (NDC) of 2015, the share of green energy in the electricity mix is expected to reach 42% and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from this sector are not expected to exceed 9.2 Gt of CO 2 eq in 2030. 2 To date, Côte d’Ivoire has not made any other quantitative commitment beyond 2030.
As natural gas is the main source of electricity production in Côte d’Ivoire to date, we pay particular attention to its modeling. Its supply comes either from national gas reserves, via the West Africa Sub-Regional Gas Pipeline (WAGP), or from international gas reserves in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
We develop a TIMES model of the electricity sector for Côte d'Ivoire that provides least-cost solutions for power systems. Our estimates show that electricity demand could increase by a factor of 4.5 by 2050. Least cost solutions show that solar PV could provide at least 18% of total electricity generation in 2050.