The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used. Lithium-ion battery cells have also seen an impressive price reduction. Since 1991, prices have fallen by around 97%. Prices fall by an average of 19% for every doubling of capacity. Even more promising is that this rate of reduction does not yet appear to be slowing down.
Based on different mineral price growth scenarios ( Fig. S7 and Fig. S8 ), the model predicts that the global weighted averages of LIB pack prices for electric vehicles will range from $66.9/kWh to $88.5/kWh in 2030.
Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) are pivotal in the shift towards electric mobility, having seen an 85 % reduction in production costs over the past decade. However, achieving even more significant cost reductions is vital to making battery electric vehicles (BEVs) widespread and competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).
This study introduces a two-stage learning curve model that considers material costs and learning rate regression, driven by cumulative battery installation capacities. The findings indicate a projected price of $75.1/kWh (95% CI: $62.7-$86.3/kWh) on average for battery packs in electric passenger vehicles by 2030.
Direct cathode recycling provides the greatest potential for carbon reduction. LFP might be the only lithium-ion battery to achieve the $80/kWh price target. Cost reductions from learning effects can hardly offset rising carbon prices. Recycling is needed for climate change mitigation and battery economics.