Stationary storage will also increase battery demand, accounting for about 400 GWh in STEPS and 500 GWh in APS in 2030, which is about 12% of EV battery demand in the same year in both the STEPS and the APS. IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0 Battery production has been ramping up quickly in the past few years to keep pace with increasing demand.
As manufacturing capacity expands in the major electric car markets, we expect battery production to remain close to EV demand centres through to 2030, based on the announced pipeline of battery manufacturing capacity expansion as of early 2024.
The battery recycling sector, still nascent in 2023, will be core to the future of EV supply chains, and to maximising the environmental benefits of batteries. Global recycling capacity reached over 300 GWh/year in 2023, of which more than 80% was located in China, far ahead of Europe and the United States with under 2% each.
The contribution of different EV segments to electricity demand varies by region. For example, in 2023 in China, electric 2/3Ws and buses combined accounted for almost 30% of EV electricity demand, while in the United States, electric cars represented over 95% of EV electricity demand. IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0
Evolving aftersales networks will include both ICE and EV vehicles for the foreseeable future. Although EV market share will continue to grow, service revenue opportunities from ICE vehicles on the road will remain strong for years to come.
As EV sales continue to increase in today’s major markets in China, Europe and the United States, as well as expanding across more countries, demand for EV batteries is also set to grow quickly. In the STEPS, EV battery demand grows four-and-a-half times by 2030, and almost seven times by 2035 compared to 2023.