But a 2022 analysis by the McKinsey Battery Insights team projects that the entire lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery chain, from mining through recycling, could grow by over 30 percent annually from 2022 to 2030, when it would reach a value of more than $400 billion and a market size of 4.7 TWh. 1
The global market for Lithium-ion batteries is expanding rapidly. We take a closer look at new value chain solutions that can help meet the growing demand.
In the short to medium-term, deficits are expected for lithium in 2022-2023, whereas the global supply/demand market balance will be tight for nickel (by 2029), graphite (by 2024) and manganese (by 2025). By 2025, the EU domestic production of battery cells is expected to cover EU’s consumption needs for electric vehicles and energy storage.
Many lithium mines, led by Chinese operators, are maintaining production of the raw material needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, in defiance of prices weak enough to trigger mass output cuts - providing a boon for battery makers.
Global demand for Li-ion batteries is expected to soar over the next decade, with the number of GWh required increasing from about 700 GWh in 2022 to around 4.7 TWh by 2030 (Exhibit 1).
The EU is expected to expand its production base for battery raw materials and components over 2022-2030, and improve its current position and global share. However, dependencies and bottlenecks in the supply chain will remain creating vulnerabilities.