Lithium-ion battery prices have declined from USD 1 400 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to less than USD 140 per kilowatt-hour in 2023, one of the fastest cost declines of any energy technology ever, as a result of progress in research and development and economies of scale in manufacturing.
By 2030, total installed costs could fall between 50% and 60% (and battery cell costs by even more), driven by optimisation of manufacturing facilities, combined with better combinations and reduced use of materials. Battery lifetimes and performance will also keep improving, helping to reduce the cost of services delivered.
As EV sales continue to increase in today’s major markets in China, Europe and the United States, as well as expanding across more countries, demand for EV batteries is also set to grow quickly. In the STEPS, EV battery demand grows four-and-a-half times by 2030, and almost seven times by 2035 compared to 2023.
The global market value of batteries quadruples by 2030 on the path to net zero emissions. Currently the global value of battery packs in EVs and storage applications is USD 120 billion, rising to nearly USD 500 billion in 2030 in the NZE Scenario.
This study shows that battery electricity storage systems offer enormous deployment and cost-reduction potential. By 2030, total installed costs could fall between 50% and 60% (and battery cell costs by even more), driven by optimisation of manufacturing facilities, combined with better combinations and reduced use of materials.
As manufacturing capacity expands in the major electric car markets, we expect battery production to remain close to EV demand centres through to 2030, based on the announced pipeline of battery manufacturing capacity expansion as of early 2024.