Province-level solar PV supply curves in China were constructed. PV technical potential was estimated around 39.6 PWh to 442 PWh. The uncertainty of PV technical potential was quantified. The cost of PV ranges from 0.12 CNY/kWh to 7.93 CNY/kWh. China's PV economic potential far exceeds its projected electricity demand.
To reduce this financial gap and manage the decrease of PV costs, the Chinese government published the Notice on matters of PV power generation in 2018, which is referred to as the “531” policy, reducing the subsidies for PV from 0.36 CNY/kWh to 0.32 CNY/kWh.
According to our results, approximately 78.6 % and 99.9 % of China's technical solar PV potential are priced lower than the benchmark price of coal-fired energy in pessimistic and optimistic scenario.
According to our analysis, if electricity prices of the provinces remain unchanged, the cost of PV electricity could be reduced to 0.52–1.22 RMB/kWh by 2015, which is comparable with the grid prices in regions with large PV capacity and high electricity prices, such as Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai.
According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2040, the electricity generated from PV systems in China will account for 13.2% in the stated policies scenario and 23.4% in the sustainable development scenario. As a result, PV will play a more important role in the future electricity system in China.
Since 2009, the Chinese government has taken a series of measures to promote solar PV installation in China. In March 2009, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development initiated the first national PV program to subsidize BIPV systems larger than 50 kWp with 0.2 RMB/Wp (equivalent to 0.12–0.20 RMB/kWh).