Modern EVs are designed to last 15-20 years, comparable to or even longer than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The key factor in their longevity is the battery. EV batteries are typically considered at the end of their life when they drop below 70 to 80 per cent of their original capacity.
Battery replacement is the most significant expense associated with owning an EV. While early EV models showed faster battery degradation, contemporary batteries, with improved technology and management systems, are now much more durable than before.
Longer battery lifetime in EV use and a higher share of second use at the end of life will contribute to delaying the eventual return of batteries for recycling, and hence lower the potential of meeting the material demands for battery production.
A study by Recurrent in the US found that EV battery replacements are uncommon, with only 2.5 per cent of vehicles requiring replacements across all years and models, excluding major recalls.
Then there might be improved lithium-ion batteries, maybe using silicon anodes or rocksalt cathodes, for mid-range vehicles, or perhaps solid-state lithium batteries will take over that class. Then there might be LiS or even lithium–air cells for high-end cars — or flying taxis. But there’s a lot of work yet to be done.
The standard deviation is set such that at least 85% of the batteries survive 3 years in a short commercial battery storage application ( Jenkins et al., 2008 ). Additionally, only 15% of the batteries survive the maximum expected lifetime in second use, which may range from 4 to 10 years ( Neubauer et al., 2015 ). 2.1.2.